12/02/2020

Throw a curve in 2020


Curveball, a pitch that is thrown slower, is mainly used to keep hitters off-balance. It’s widely used throughout baseball history and many pitchers have it in their pitch arsenals. To know more about curveball usage in the 2020 season, I went to visit the statcast website.



In the 2020 season, 112 pitchers threw at least 100 curves (curveball, knuckle curve and slow curve). Veteran starter Adam Wainwright threw 356 curveballs, most in the majors in 2020. Astros pitcher Framber Valdez also threw more than 350 curveballs. In addition, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner threw more than 300 curveballs.


Look at curveball usage. Joe Kelly used his curveball 63.2% of the time, the only pitcher who used curveball more than 60% of the time. One of the most memorable moments this season is that he threw 6 curveballs against Carlos Correa and he struck out Correa. We all know the rest of the story. Twins pitcher Tyler Duffey tossed 24 innings in 2020 and he used his curveball more than 56% of the time. Pierce Johnson from the Padres used his curveball 54.2% of the time in 2020.


Curveball is known as a slow pitch. In 2020, Alec Mill threw his curveball really slow, on average, his curveball velocity was 66.6 mph. Former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke’s average curveball velocity was 70.7 mph. Greinke sometimes threw his “slow curve”, which is usually below 70 mph.


Curveball’s spin rate ranges widely. Among these 112 pitchers, Lucas Sims’ curveball average spin rate was 3334 rpm. Seth Lugo’s curveball spin rate was 3213 rpm on average. Dodgers pitchers Dustin May and Joe Kelly each threw curveballs that hit 3000 rpm. However, some pitchers’ curveballs are at a lower spin rate. Thomas Eshelman’s curveball was on average spinning at a rate of 1771 rpm in 2020. Hoby Milner and Sean Manaea also threw curveballs that didn’t hit 2000 rpm.


Hits allowed (Curve, 2020)

Player

Hits

Dylan Bundy

0

Trevor Cahill

Genesis Cabrera

1

Dylan Cease

Evan Marshall

Joe Musgrove


Dylan Bundy’s first season with the Angels went very well. He posted a 3.29 ERA and a WHIP of 1.04. He didn’t allow a hit on his curveball in 2020. Trevor Cahill threw 25 innings for the Giants in 2020, he didn’t allow a hit on his curveball, either. Genesis Cabrera, Dylan Cease, Evan Marshall and Joe Musgrove each allowed a hit on their curveball.


xwOBA against Evan Marshall’s curveball was .108 in 2020. It was really hard for MLB batters to hit hard against Marshall’s curveball. xwOBA against Zach Eflin’s curve and Dylan Bundy’s curve each went below .140. xwOBA against Shane Bieber’s curve was .152. Nonetheless, some pitchers’ curveballs didn’t work effectively in the shortened season. xwOBA against Justin Dunn’s curveball was .431. 3-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer used his curveball 9.2% of the time in 2020, however, it wasn’t effective. xwOBA against Scherzer’s curveball was .418. Batters were fine when seeing Robbie Ray throw curveballs since xwOBA against Ray’s curveball was .415. Scherzer and Ray will have to figure out how to well use their curveballs in the next season.

Curveball is a very common pitch around the world of baseball. Its spin rate can range from under 1000 rpm to over 3000 rpm. We can also see that the velocity also ranges widely from under 70 mph to nearly 90 mph. Using curveballs effectively as Shane Bieber did in 2020 can help you win the Cy Young award. However, we also see good pitchers such as Max Scherzer and Robbie Ray struggled with their curves in 2020.

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