11/01/2021

Quality starts


MLB teams have different ways to use starting pitchers these years. A starting pitcher might not throw as many innings as starting pitchers used to do in the previous generation. However, there are still several pitchers who did “quality” job frequently this year. A quality start indicates that a pitcher throws at least 6 innings and allows 3 earned runs or fewer. It’s not a perfect stat to tell us how good a starter is. However, it can let us know whether a starter can get the job done and eat enough innings.

Walker Buehler might not be very sharp this postseason, posting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP over 4 starts. Nonetheless, he’s one of the great starting pitchers in the majors. During the regular season, Buehler made a career-high 33 starts and among those 33 starts, he recorded 27 quality starts, leading the majors. Moreover, there were only two starts that Buehler couldn’t go 5 innings. One was against the Giants and the other was against the Rockies. Thus, during the regular season, there were 31 games in which he tossed at least 5 innings. Buehler finished the 2021 season with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Opponents only hit .199 against Buehler. He’s surely a strong candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. 
In addition, Sandy Alcantara made a career-high 33 starts as well and he had a career-high 23 quality starts this season. Although Alcantara took 15 losses this year, we shouldn’t ignore his solid performance. He owned a 3.19 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Furthermore, there were only 4 starts that he couldn’t reach 5 innings. 2 of those 4 starts were against the Dodgers. Robbie Ray also had 23 quality starts in 2021. Last year, Robbie Ray tossed 51.2 innings with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP. He made 11 starts last year, but didn’t record a quality start. In 2021, he had a great season with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 193.1 innings. There were only 4 games that he couldn’t toss 5 innings. Robbie Ray enjoyed a bounce-back season and he will be a free agent. It’s going to be interesting to see which team he will agree to a deal with. Adam Wainwright turned 40 in August and he tossed 206.1 innings in 2021, 3rd most among MLB pitchers. Age doesn’t seem to be a big problem for him. He made 32 starts and 22 were quality starts. Additionally, he couldn’t reach 5 innings only 3 times this year. Wainwright earned 17 wins with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. He will return to the Cardinals’ rotation next year. Finally, Kevin Gausman, Frankie Montas, Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff each recorded 20 quality starts in 2021. Among these 8 pitchers who had at least 20 quality starts this year, they each made at least 30 starts and only 3 of them finished the season with an over 3 ERA. People often say that 6 innings with 3 runs represents a 4.50 ERA and it doesn’t really mean “quality”. However, a quality start is one of several ways for teams to use to evaluate how effective a starting pitcher is.

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