In October, two-time Cy Young award winner Johan Santana was back to Minnesota, throwing the first pitch in Game 3 of the ALDS. Surprisingly, Santana wore a Pablo Lopez jersey. It was a great moment because Pablo Lopez indicated that Santana was his childhood idol.
These 2 Venezuelan pitchers, without doubt, each did a great job to help the Twins clinch a postseason berth in different seasons. And, seeing them both wear 49, I began to think about a question.
Johan Santana and Pablo Lopez are both from Venezuela. Additionally, a key thing, they both have a weapon, which is called changeup. That makes me think about these 2 pitchers’ changeups. Whose changeup is more difficult for MLB batters to hit?
To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.
Johan Santana made his MLB debut in 2000 and his last game in the majors was in 2012. However, on the statcast website, we can only search for data since 2008. There is something missing, but we can still take a look at these 2 pitchers' changeups by using the data.
Firstly, from 2008 to 2012, Johan Santana played for the New York Mets. He didn’t pitch in 2011 due to injuries. So, during these 4 seasons with the Mets, he used his changeup nearly 25% of the time. Without doubt, his changeup was most batters’ nightmare. Opponents only batted .186 against his changeup. On average, his changeup velocity was 80.3 mph.
In addition, Pablo Lopez made it into the big leagues in 2018. From 2018 to 2023, his changeup usage is over 27%. In particular, he used his changeup more than 35% of the time in 2022. Pablo Lopez’s changeup isn’t easy to hit and opponents bat .227 during these 6 seasons.
Finally, let’s take a look at swings and misses. In 2008, Johan Santana’s changeup generated more than 200 swings and misses. In 2009 and 2010, his changeup created 100+ whiffs each season. However, in 2012, after missing the entire 2011 season, Santana made 21 starts and his changeup didn’t generate as many swings and misses as it used to. Now, let’s look at Pablo Lopez’s changeup. But, firstly, please remember that the 2020 season was a shortened one. So, over these 3 seasons, his changeup generated at least 100 swings and misses each season. As we can see, Pablo Lopez’s changeup created 187 swings and misses in 2022. In that season, the whiff% of his changeup was 33.8%.
Johan Santana, no doubt, was one of the elite pitchers in his generation. He won the AL Cy Young award 2 times and his changeup was certainly one of the hardest pitches to hit. We only look at the data from 2008 to 2012 and know that opponents couldn’t hit well against his changeup. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in January and now, he’s another pitcher who throws a good changeup for the Twins. Johan Santana, Pablo Lopez’s childhood idol, threw 34 innings for the Twins in the postseason and earned only 1 win. This postseason, Pablo Lopez made 2 starts and threw 12.2 innings. Lopez earned 2 wins in the 2023 playoffs. It might not be easy to win a Cy Young award as Santana did. But, let’s see if Pablo Lopez can keep effectively using his changeup to help the Twins earn more wins in the postseason in the coming seasons.
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