11/12/2023

Something didn't work


For the Dodgers fans, it’s not an ideal way to end the 2023 season. The Dodgers won 100 games this year, however, they were swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS. Again, the Dodgers fell short in the postseason. And, this time, it might be even more bitter. The ace Clayton Kershaw couldn’t finish his job and only tossed 0.1 innings this postseason.

 

It's not common to see Kershaw eat only 0.1 innings. However, it’s not the first time in his career. Back in 2008, Clayton Kershaw, who was a rookie, made a relief appearance in NLCS Game 4. He got one out but gave up a run. Additionally, in 2019, in Game 5 of the NLDS, Kershaw went on the mound in the top of the 7th inning. He struck out Adam Eaton to end the inning. Nonetheless, he gave up 2 home runs in the top of the 8th inning. Moreover, this year, Kershaw gave up 6 runs in the top of the first inning in the NLDS Game 1 and got only 1 out. Of course, Kershaw, the 3-time Cy Young award winner and future Hall of Famer, doesn’t want to see this happen in a game. In particular, in the playoffs, it’s even worse. But, what really went wrong this postseason?

 

To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.

 

Firstly, let’s start with his four-seam fastball.

 

Stats (Clayton Kershaw, Postseason, 4-seam Fastball)

Yr.

Pitches

Velocity (MPH)

Spin Rate (RPM)

BAA

2020

176

91.5

2534

.206

2022

37

91.6

2384

.222

2023

17

90.4

2244

.500

 

As we can see, Kershaw’s 4-seamer wasn’t the same as it was in 2020 or 2022. The average velocity of Kershaw’s 4-seam fastball dropped to 90.4 mph in the NLDS Game 1. Moreover, the average spin rate of his 4-seamers was 2244 rpm. Back in 2020, Kershaw’s four-seamer spun at a rate of 2534 rpm, on average.

 

In addition, let’s take a look at his slider.

 

Stats (Clayton Kershaw, Postseason, Slider)

Yr.

Pitches

Velocity (MPH)

Spin Rate (RPM)

BAA

2020

186

87.9

2734

.211

2022

33

87.1

2616

.286

2023

14

87.0

2436

1.000

 

After adding a slider into his pitch arsenal, Kershaw has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors and for quite a while, he was the best pitcher in the league. However, this postseason, the average spin rate of his slider dropped to 2436 rpm and the velocity also dropped. In the 2020 postseason, Kershaw’s slider spun at a rate of 2734 rpm and the average velocity of his slider was 87.9 mph.

 

Finally, let’s look at Kershaw’s curveball.

 

Stats (Clayton Kershaw, Postseason, Curveball)

Yr.

Pitches

Velocity (MPH)

Spin Rate (RPM)

BAA

2020

68

74.5

2610

.222

2022

10

74.0

2394

.400

2023

4

73.9

2211

1.000

 

Vin Scully called Kershaw’s curveball “Public Enemy No.1.” Without doubt, it used to be one of the hardest pitches to hit in the majors. Nonetheless, this postseason, Kershaw’s curveball didn’t work and he gave up 2 extra base hits. Back in the 2020 postseason, Kershaw’s curveball spun at a rate of 2610 rpm, on average, and last year, the average spin rate of his curveball was 2394 rpm. This postseason, he only threw his curveball 4 times and the average spin rate was 2211 rpm.

 

Kershaw’s start in the NLDS Game 1 was an embarrassing one. Nevertheless, while reviewing his stuff, there might be more concerns. His fastball velocity drops, without doubt. Moreover, does the spin rate also drop? Does the spin rate drop highly influence the outcomes of using his breaking pitches? During the offseason, it will be worth watching whether Kershaw will return to the Dodgers. And, the future Hall of Famer might have some work to do. He's Clayton Kershaw and should be able to find a way to pitch more effectively in the coming season. But, we have to wait a bit. Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery and it will take some time to see him get back to the mound.

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