1/24/2024

Home Runs, first 3 batters


For the Dodgers fans, the 2023 season was a disappointing one. However, in the off-season, the Dodgers signed 2-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. With Ohtani in the lineup, the Dodgers certainly have one of the best lineups in the majors. Well, Dave Roberts might have to figure out how to construct the lineup. Nonetheless, without many doubts, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani will be the top 3 batters in the lineup.

 

In 2023, Mookie Betts crushed 39 home runs and Freddie Freeman blasted 29 homers. In the meantime, Ohtani led the AL with 44 home runs. In total, these 3 batters combined for 112 home runs last season. 112 home runs, that makes me think about a question. Is it often to see top 3 batters in the lineup combine for at least 110 home runs in a single season?

 

To understand a little bit more, I decided to check on the great Fangraphs website.

 

Home Runs
(Combined, team, first 3 batters in the lineup, 2010~2023)

Year

Team (HR)

2010

Blue Jays (87)

2011

Yankees (85)

2012

Yankees (82), Blue Jays (82)

2013

Tigers (79)

2014

Angels (86)

2015

Blue Jays (104)

2016

Blue Jays (97)

2017

Yankees (98)

2018

Angels (96)

2019

Twins (132)

Yankees (115)

Astros (111)

Braves (110)

Rockies (109)

Mets (107)

Dodgers (105)

Red Sox (102)

Reds (101)

2020

Dodgers (47)

2021

Blue Jays (127)

Dodgers (110)

Giants (107)

Braves (106)

Cubs (104)

Reds (100)

2022

Yankees (123)

Angels (103)

2023

Braves (120)

Dodgers (105)

Angels (103)

 

From 2010 to 2014, there weren’t any teams that top 3 batters in the lineup combined for at least 90 home runs in a single season. However, things changed a little bit in 2015. In the 2015 season, the batters who batted 1st, bat 2nd and 3rd for the Blue Jays combined for 104 home runs. The key player is certainly the 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson. He blasted 38 home runs while batting second. Additionally, he had 2 home runs when batting first and smashed 1 home run while batting third. Moreover, Jose Bautista crushed 38 home runs while batting third for the Blue Jays in 2015.

 

Nonetheless, from 2016 to 2018, we didn’t see any teams that top 3 batters in the lineup combined for at least 100 home runs.

 

However, in 2019, things dramatically changed. In total, there were 9 teams that first 3 batters in the lineup combined to blast at least 100 home runs. In particular, the Minnesota Twins’ first 3 batters in the lineup were “home run hitters” and they combined for 132 home runs. While batting first, Max Kepler blasted 32 home runs and Mitch Garver had 12 home runs. Moreover, Jorge Polanco crushed 21 home runs while batting second. Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz smashed 41 home runs while batting third. At the same time, three other teams each had seen their first 3 batters combine to hit at least 110 home runs in the 2019 season.

 

The 2020 season was a shortened one. But in 2021, as we can see, there were 6 teams that first 3 batters in the lineup combined for at least 100 home runs. And the Blue Jays seem to do a good job to put good “home run hitters” in the top of the lineup. In 2021, the players who used to bat first, second and third for the Blue Jays combined for 127 home runs. While batting first, Marcus Semien blasted 24 home runs and George Springer had 17 home runs. Additionally, Semien had 16 homers while batting second and Bo Bichette had 15 home runs while batting second. And we won’t forget Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who finished second in the 2021 AL MVP voting. He smashed 43 home runs while batting third in 2021.

 

In 2022, Aaron Judge had an incredible season, hitting .311/.425/.686 with 62 home runs and 131 RBI. He had 13 home runs when batted first and while batting second, he crushed 47 home runs. He occasionally batted third in 2022, but he still had 2 home runs. Moreover, Anthony Rizzo belted 25 home runs when he batted third for the Yankees in that season. In total, the Yankees batters who used to bat first, second and third in 2022 combined for 123 home runs. The Angels were the other team that first 3 batters in the lineup blasted at least 100 HRs in the 2022 season.

 

Last season, there were 3 teams, which the first 3 batters in the lineup combined for at least 100 home runs. It’s certainly worth mentioning the Atlanta Braves. Ronald Acuna Jr., who won the 2023 NL MVP, is one of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in the majors. He smashed 41 home runs while batting first. Furthermore, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson each blasted 18 home runs when they batted second. Additionally, Austin Riley crushed 36 home runs while batting third last season.


Looking at the stats from 2010 to 2018, in a team, it wasn’t common to see the first 3 batters in the lineup combine for at least 100 home runs in a single season. Nonetheless, since 2019, it seems that MLB teams have a different way to construct the lineups. We can see that there are more teams that put power hitters in the top of the batting order. Since 2019, there are 8 times that a team’s first 3 batters in the lineup combined for at least 110 home runs in a single season. This year, it will certainly be worthwhile to see who will be the leadoff hitter for the Dodgers. Additionally, who will have more plate appearances to bat second, Ohtani or Freeman? Most importantly, how many home runs will these 3 great hitters have in the 2024 season when they are healthy?

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