4/29/2020

What if?- Andre Ethier

Andre Ethier (2015)

Bottom of the 6th inning, men on first and second, 1-1 count, 97-mph fastball, Andre Ethier swung and hit a ground ball to the right field. The Dodgers scored the only run in the game 7 of the World Series 2017. That was Ethier’s last AB as a Dodger.

Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 2003 and acquired by the Dodgers from a trade featuring Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez, Andre Ethier made his major league debut in 2006. He was called up in May, 2006. He hit above .300 each of the first 4 months and was a strong candidate for the rookie of the year award before hitting the rookie wall in September. He hit only .132 in September/October.

Looking back some moments at his career, the 30-game hitting streak was one of the great achievements. How special is it?

Player
Team
Games
Year(s)
Jimmy Rollins
Philadelphia Phillies
38 (36)
2005–06
Luis Castillo
Florida Marlins
35
2002
Chase Utley
Philadelphia Phillies
35
2006
Dan Uggla
Atlanta Braves
33
2011
Whit Merrifield
Kansas City Royals
31 (11)
2018-19
Albert Pujols
St. Louis Cardinals
30
2003
Willy Taveras
Houston Astros
30
2006
Moisés Alou
New York Mets
30
2007
Ryan Zimmerman
Washington Nationals
30
2009
Andre Ethier
Los Angeles Dodgers
30
2011
Freddie Freeman
Atlanta Braves
30
2016

There are only 11 players who had at least 30 games hitting streak since 2000. Meanwhile, there are 55 no-hitters since 2000. Being consistent is important for MLB players, at the same time, you must keep good mentality to catch the opportunities at every 3 or 4 at bats everyday. And we do see MVPs and future Hall of Famers on the list. Thus, I somehow think about something. How good is Andre Ethier? What if those injuries (broken right tibia and lumbar disk herniation) did not happen in 2016 and 2017?

Let’s turn back the clock. After a discouraging 2014, a year that Ethier played only 130 games and hit only .249/.322/.370 with 4 home runs and 42 RBIs, he bounced back when the Dodgers needed him in 2015. His BA was .294 with OPS .852. On August 2, against the Angels, Ethier hit his 7th walk-off Home run, the 14th walk-off hit in his career. 14 walk-off hits are the 2nd most in the Dodgers franchise. Playing 142 games in 2015, Ethier’s xwOBA was .366, top 10% of the league, higher than his teammate Adrian Gonzalez and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre (Rangers).

xwOBA (2015)
Rank                        
Player
xwOBA
1
Miguel Cabrera
.431
2
Mike Trout
.423
3
Joey Votto
.421
4
Bryce Harper
.417
5
Freddie Freeman
.416
6
David Ortiz
.416
7
Paul Goldschmidt
.400
8
Chris Davis
.398
9
Andre McCutchen
.398
10
Josh Donaldson
.391
11
J.D. Martinez
.388
12
Edwin Encarnacion
.387
13
Matt Carpenter
.384
14
Jose Bautista
.384
15
Anthony Rizzo
.380
16
Ryan Braun
.379
17
Nelson Cruz
.379
18
Yoenis Cespedes
.377
19
Justin Turner
.374
20
Buster Posey
.374
21
Kendrys Morales
.372
22
Ryan Zimmerman
.371
23
Lorenzo Cain
.370
24
Mark Teixeria
.369
25
Lucas Duda
.368
26
Andre Ethier
.366
27
Eric Hosmer
.366
28
Adrian Gonzalez
.365
29
Brandon Belt
.364
30
Adrian Beltre
.364

In 2016 spring training, Ethier seems to have a pretty good spring. Dave Roberts placed him to bat first because Ethier can get on base. Indeed, he can, Ethier’s OBP was .517 and was batting .435 in the spring training. It seemed that Ethier was ready for the new season and new role given to him. However, he fouled ball of shin and missed 160 days in 2016 regular season. Then the back injury bothered him in 2017 and he missed 153 days that season.

wRC+ (2006-2015)
Rank
Player
wRC+ (Min PA: 2,000)
1
Mike Trout
166
2
Miguel Cabrera
158
#
47
Ryan Howard
123
48
Vladimir Guerrero
123
49
Andre Ethier
123
50
Carlos Santana
123
51
Troy Tulowitzki
123
52
Milton Bradley
123
53
Victor Martinez
123

wRC+ (2006-2017)
Rank
Player
wRC+ (Min PA: 2,500)
1
Mike Trout
169
2
Joey Votto
158
#
50
Andre Ethier
122
51
Josh Willingham
122
52
Derrek Lee
122
53
Aramis Ramirez
122
54
Christian Yelich
122
55
Matt Kemp
122

From 2006 to 2015, Ether’s wRC+ was 123, top 50 in the league. In these 10 years, he proved that he’s a good hitter and he did contribute to the Dodgers lineup. In 2016 and 2017, Ethier’s wRC+ was 63 and 95 each. However, Ethier’s career wRC+ was 122. Derek Jeter was voted into the baseball Hall of Fame 2020 and his career wRC+ was 119. 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau, his career wRC+ was 116.

Injuries are always tough. If Ethier didn’t suffer the injuries, he could probably reach some milestones such as 700 RBIs and 1500 hits, or maybe he would reunite with great teammate Matt Kemp again in 2018. But, he never played again after the RBI single in the World Series 2017 Game 7.   

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