Comeback player of the (another) year?

Yoenis Cespedes had 2 home runs and collected 4 RBIs before he decided to opt out this season. He missed the 2019 season last year because of heel surgery. Before the 2020 season began, Cesepdes seemed to be ready and healthy for this full season, a shortened season. He was considered a strong candidate for NL Comeback player of the season. However, after playing 8 games, he decided not to come back this season.

New York Mets acquired Cespedes in a trade with the Tigers, sending Luis Cessa and Michael Fulmer to the Tigers before the 2015 trade deadline. In the 2016 season, Cespedes hit .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs. He was an All-Star and finished 8th in the MVP voting. However, that might be his peak season with the Mets. He only played 81 games in 2017 and 38 games in 2018. After this season, he will become a free agent.

With the universal designated hitter rule, it is generally believed that Cespedes would be beneficial from being a full-time DH. There is no doubt that he can hit. In 2015, Cespedes ranked 24th in hard hit rate and in 2016, it’s even better, his hard hit rate ranked 14th. In the 2020 season, Cespedes’ hard hit rate was 50%. According to the statcast website data on August 10, Kyle Schwarber also has a 50% hard hit rate.

Hard Hit % (2015)
Rank	Player	%
1	Miguel Cabrera	53.0
2	David Ortiz	49.3
3	J.D. Martinez	48.7
#
23	Christian Yelich	45.1
24	Yoenis Cespedes	45.0
25	Freddie Freeman	45.0

 

Hard Hit % (2016)
Rank	Player	%
1	Nelson Cruz	52.4
2	Miguel Cabrera	50.6
3	Christian Yelich	49.9
#
13	DJ LeMahieu	47.5
14	Yoenis Cespedes	47.5
15	J.D. Martinez	47.2

Cespedes is a very good fastball hitter. Against fastballs, his hard hit rate was over 45% from 2015 to 2018. In this season, small sample size, Cespedes’ hard hit rate is 62.5%. However, against offspeed pitches, his hard hit rate is 33.3% this year, tied his career lowest in 2017.

Meanwhile, Cespedes’ barrel% was 11.3% in 2015, which was in the top 20. His barrel % in this season is 12.5%, approximately the top 50 according to the statcast website data.

Barrel % (2015)
Rank	Player	%
1	Chris Davis	17.6
2	J.D. Martinez	17.6
3	Randal Grichuk	16.8
#
19	Freddie Freeman	11.3
20	Yoenis Cespedes	11.3
21	Carlos Gonzalez	11.0

Barrel% showed something quite interesting. Cespedes’ barrel% against fastballs reached 25% this season. From 2015 to 2018, his barrel% against different types of pitches remained between 8% and 16%. This season, again, small sample size, 0 barrel against offspeed and breaking pitches.

Swing & Miss % also indicated that Cesepedes probably would need more time to adjust after missing last season. Swing & Miss % against offspeed pitches jumped to 50% and against fastballs swing & miss % was also a career high 29%.

Yoenis Cespedes decided not to play in this season while the team was traveling to Atlanta. Of Course, he will not be the NL comeback player of the year. As he will become a free agent, he will probably not come back to the New York Mets. He’s already 34 years old with injury history. It’s also hard to tell the dynamics of the free-agent market. In the meantime, we don't know whether the universal DH rule will be here to stay in the 2021 season. Thus, Cespedes may not be the biggest name on the free-agent market. It makes me wonder whether an MLB franchise would like to sign Cespedes the next year. Will Cespedes come back in the next season?