However, Jansen had 6 blown saves in the 2018 season and in the last season, he had 8 blown saves. His ERA was only 1.32 in 2017, but his ERA went above 3.00 in the last two seasons. His cutter velocity drop really caused some struggles.
Nevertheless, Jansen is still one of the great closers in the league if he can locate his pitches well.
In the 2016 season, Jansen earned 47 saves, but he also had 6 blown saves. Look at the top of the strike zone, he created more than swings-and-misses when he threw pitches in the top of the strike zone. At the bottom of the strike zone, he only created less than 15% whiffs.
Whiff % (Kenley Jansen, 2016) | ||
35% | 38% | 23% |
27% | 27% | 24% |
0% | 15% | 14% |
xwOBA (Kenley Jansen, 2016) | ||
.228 | .120 | .186 |
.140 | .332 | .203 |
.422 | .263 | .206 |
Kenley Jansen was dominant in the 2017 season. We can say that he’s the most reliable closer in that season. He earned 41 saves and he only blew once. In the top of the strike zone, his whiff percentage was over 30% and it was really hard for hitters to hit well against him.
Whiff % (Kenley Jansen, 2017) | ||
39% | 36% | 33% |
25% | 31% | 27% |
43% | 15% | 25% |
xwOBA (Kenley Jansen, 2017) | ||
.063 | .271 | .142 |
.244 | .351 | .277 |
.023 | .220 | .276 |
Jansen’s pitch velocity drop became a problem. We see that in the middle of the strike zone, his whiff% is less than 25%. He couldn’t create that many swings and misses as he did in the previous season. In 9 zones, there are three zones that xwOBA against Jansen went above .350.
Whiff % (Kenley Jansen, 2018) | ||
27% | 35% | 29% |
13% | 24% | 16% |
36% | 25% | 33% |
xwOBA (Kenley Jansen, 2018) | ||
.196 | .357 | .224 |
.246 | .366 | .220 |
.084 | .134 | .414 |
In the last season, it was really tough for Jansen. His ERA went up to 3.71, highest in a single season and he blew 8 saves. He still created swings and misses when his pitches were located in the top of the strike zone. However, there are 4 zones that xwOBA against Jansen were above .300.
Whiff % (Kenley Jansen, 2019) | ||
26% | 32% | 28% |
25% | 32% | 16% |
38% | 19% | 5% |
xwOBA (Kenley Jansen, 2019) | ||
.450 | .314 | .213 |
.246 | .310 | .266 |
.023 | .365 | .125 |
Jansen already earned 7 saves thus far this season without blowing any saves. He seems pretty good on the mound after recovering from COVID-19. He only allowed 4 hits in 10.1 innings. Only 10.1 innings, small sample size, however, we see that in the top of the strike zone, whiff percentage is higher than 20%. But, there are 2 zones that hitters hit really hard.
Whiff % (Kenley Jansen, 2020) ~8/17 | ||
20% | 25% | 36% |
100% | 17% | 7% |
0 | 0 | 33% |
xwOBA (Kenley Jansen, 2020) ~8/17 | ||
.697 | .018 | .051 |
| .233 | .128 |
.741 | .281 | .029 |
Kenley Jansen is no doubt one of the most reliable closers in the majors. However, he also faces the velocity drop problem that many pitchers have encountered. It’s a very serious problem, but there are still solutions. Maybe Jansen will not regain the lost velocity. Nevertheless, he can still be effective on the mound. From the zone charts above, there is one zone which has an at least 23% whiff rate and xwOBA was below .230 from 2016 to 2020. It’s not that Jansen should always throw pitches in that zone. It’s the zone that if Jansen can locate his pitches well, he will be really effective.
The Best Location? xwOBA ≤ .230 | ||
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