Can Money buy wins?

Baseball is a business and it has been a big business for a long time. Since the book Moneyball was published, there have been a lot of changes in baseball and its business. However, MLB team payrolls have always been a key topic. Some teams are willing to agree a big deal with top free agents. Some teams would like to remain competitive while having a reasonable payroll.

I was trying to understand if any teams truly spent a lot in the past. I checked the salary database on USA Today and here’s what I found. I used the opening day payrolls from 2000 to 2019. The 2020 payrolls aren’t included because they aren’t available on USA Today yet and it was a shortened season.

So, from 2000 to 2019, in these 20 years, which team spent the most? It might be not that hard to guess the answer. The New York Yankees paid more than 3.3 billion, leading the majors. Yankees’ rival Red Sox spent more than 2.7 billion and the Dodgers spent more than 2.5 billion. In total, 8 teams spent more than 2 billion from 2000 to 2019. At the same time, some teams did not spend much. Two teams in Florida, the Miami Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays, each spent less than 1.1 billion. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics and the Pittsburgh Pirates each paid less than 1.2 billion.

Now, we know that the Yankees did pay a lot. Did they win more? The answer is yes. The Yankees won 1886 games from 2000 to 2019, leading the majors. The St. Louis Cardinals also won more than 1800 games during this period. In addition, the Red Sox, the Dodgers, the Braves, Oakland A’s and the Angels each won more than 1700 games from 2000 to 2019. Nevertheless, the Royals, the Orioles and the Pirates failed to win 1500 games. The Padres only won 1508 games from 2000 to 2019, however, the Padres front office made several blockbuster deals this offseason and it seems that they are a very dangerous team in the 2021 season.
Well, so can money really buy wins? I create a zone chart. There are 4 zones. The first zone is “pay & win”, which a team paid higher than average and won more than average. The second zone is “pay & win less”, which a team paid higher than average but didn’t win more than average. The third zone is “pay less & win”, which a team didn’t pay higher than average but win more than average. The fourth zone is “pay less & win less”, which a team didn’t pay higher than average and didn’t win more than average.

As we can see, there are 9 teams in the first zone. The Yankees did spend way more than any other teams and win much more. In this zone, these 9 teams won 14 of 20 World Series Champions from 2000 to 2019. In the second zone, 3 teams unfortunately spent a lot of money, but didn’t win a lot. They are the Mariners, the Tigers and the Mets. The Tigers played in the World Series in 2006 and in 2012, but they didn’t win the title. The Mets fell to the Royals in the 2015 World Series. The third zone, we can probably call the “Moneyball zone”, and there are 5 teams in this zone. Oakland A’s won more than 1700 wins while spending money wisely. The other four teams are the Astros, the Ranger, the Twins and the Indians. The rest of the teams are in the fourth zone. Well, so money can buy wins? Do owners have to pay more to win a title? You decide.