Before the 2021 season started, two great shortstops each agreed to a long-term deal. Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year, 340 million contract extension with the Padres. Additionally, just before the opening day, Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets agreed to a 341 million, 10-year deal. Are these two deals great? How will these two deals impact the free-agent market?
Francisco Lindor made it into the big league in 2015. He spent his first 6 seasons with the Cleveland Indians and was traded to the New York Mets in January 2021. He’s a four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove award winner. So far in Lindor’s career, he’s batting .285/.346/.486. In particular, from 2017 to 2019, Lindor crushed at least 30 home runs and posted an above .800 OPS each season. He already showed that he’s a great player in Cleveland. If Lindor stays healthy, the Mets fans should expect to have a shortstop who is able to hit 30+ HR each season. Yes, he has to stay healthy and the good news is that Lindor didn’t spend much time being placed on the injured list.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is surely a rising star in the big league and has drawn a lot of attention. He made his major league debut on March 28, 2019. It’s going to be his third season with the Padres. Tatis Jr. slashes .297/.371/.575 so far in his career. As a hitter, he seems to be more dangerous than Lindor. However, there could be a concern. Tatis Jr. has been placed on the injured list three times in his major league career so far. He's a young star, but if he can’t stay healthy, his contribution will be limited.
Tatis Jr. currently has 650 plate appearances in his career, but Francisco Lindor had at least 650 plate appearances each season from 2016 to 2019. The Padres would really need to make sure that they have a healthy Tatis Jr. in this long-term deal.
In addition, there will be several good shortstops that will be free agents after this season. It’s always entertaining to watch “El Mago” Javier Baez play shortstop. He has a career OPS of .776 so far, however, he was only hitting .203/.238/.360 in 2020. It will be important for him to bounce back before hitting free agency.
Carlos Correa is younger than Francisco Lindor, however, health is truly an issue for Correa. He only had one season with more than 500 plate appearances, which was in 2016. Correa posts a career OPS of .835 and he’s off to a good start, currently hitting .295/.354/.568.
Corey Seager had a very great 2020, slashed .307/.358/.585 and stayed hot in the postseason to help the Dodgers win the World Series title. He also won the NLCS MVP and World Series MVP. His career OPS is .866 and he has been hitting well in 2021, slashing .366/.469/.561 so far. Seager underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and he missed most of the 2018 season. Nevertheless, a healthy Corey Seager is one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.
Is this season going to be Trevor Story’s last season with the Rockies? Story already blasted more than 130 home runs in his career and his career OPS is above .850. Since the Rockies already sent Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals before the start of the 2021 season, it will be interesting to see whether Story will be traded before being a free agent.
Marcus Semien signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays in January. He’s trying to rebuild his 2019 campaign, which he batted .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs and 92 RBI.
Although Lindor and Tatis Jr. won’t be available on the free agent market for quite a while, there will be several top shortstops to hit free agency after the 2021 season. Corey Seager and Carlos Correa are both younger than Lindor. Javier Baez and Marcus Semien didn’t have a good 2020 and they will try to bounce back to attract many teams’ attention. Trevor Story has the highest career OPS among these shortstops. It will be interesting to see how these top shortstops perform in 2021. Moreover, will one of them sign a contract extension before being a free agent? If they decide to be free agents, can they secure a long-term contract as Lindor or Tatis did? Or maybe a bigger deal?
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