4/30/2021

First-pitch, strike?

 

Playing fantasy baseball is fun and helps fans engage more in baseball. I also play fantasy sports and recently, I faced a problem. A closer in my fantasy team just gave up too many walks and in some games, he was frequently behind in count. And, I was thinking of one thing and I would like to know his first-pitch strike rate.

I quickly went to visit the baseball reference website and here’s what I found.



Daniel Bard gave us an inspiring story of making a comeback to the big league. After the “yips”, Daniel was back on the mound last season and he won the 2020 NL comeback player of the year award. In 2021, he’s the closer of the Rockies. Bard is not afraid to attack the strike zone and his first pitch strike rate is higher than 77%. Bard has collected 2 saves so far.

Bard’s first pitch strike percentage is amazingly high. Meanwhile, several closers also have a high first pitch strike percentage. Ian Kennedy got the closer job after Jose Leclerc underwent Tommy John surgery. His first pitch strike rate is nearly 77% so far and he hasn’t issued a walk yet. Matt Barnes didn’t let save opportunities slip and he has earned 6 saves. By far, Barnes’ first pitch strike percentage is 76%. Additionally, 4 other closers each have an over 70% first pitch strike rate. Jake McGee throws a first pitch strike 74% of the time and he has 7 saves already. The Pirates’ closer Richard Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a run and he has 4 saves in 10 games. His first pitch strike percentage is 72.7% so far. Liam Hendriks signed a 3-year deal with the White Sox. As White Sox closer, Hendriks has a 71.8% first pitch strike percentage in his first ten games. Furthermore, Ryan Pressly has a first pitch strike rate of 71.1% in 11 innings pitched. However, there are certain exceptions. Alex Reyes has earned 6 saves and still posts a 0 ERA. But, Reyes’ first pitch strike percentage is only 44.2%. Reyes already gave up 10 walks in 12.1 innings. It’s only the first month of the 2021 season, nevertheless, it’s going to be important to see whether these free passes will cause some damage. Alex Colome actually had a good 2020 season as he finished the season with a 0.81 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Nonetheless, his first pitch strike percentage drops to 45.8% this season and his WHIP is 1.96. Colome has blown 3 saves so far. Moreover, Greg Holland’s first pitch strike percentage is only 48.9% and he gave up 7 walks in 9 innings. Holland posts a 2.00 WHIP and it’s not a good sign for the Royals. Scott Barlow has a 69.8% first pitch strike rate and Josh Staumont throws a first pitch strike 57.1% of the time. Besides, Cesar Valdez has a first pitch strike percentage of 47.9% by far.
A pitcher has to wisely attack the strike zone. In addition, falling behind the count usually causes some problems. For MLB closers, they have to pitch in a high-leverage situation frequently or in late innings with huge pressure. It’s probably even more important for them to attack the strike zone early. For example, we see that Ian Kennedy, Jake McGee and Matt Barnes aren’t afraid to throw a first pitch strike and they have been pitching well thus far. Mark Melancon, the leader in saves at this moment, also has a high first pitch strike percentage (67.5%). Falling behind might increase the batter’s chance of success and some closers such as Colome and Holland have to fix this problem.

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