7/07/2023

More disciplined, better outcomes?


A few days ago, I was watching a baseball game on TV and chatting with some friends at the same time. During the game, a friend indicated that a player hits much better than he did last year and another friend mentioned that he doesn’t chase too much this season.

After watching the game, I was just wondering which players have become more disciplined this season. To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.

Chase Rate change (min PA: Qualified, ~2023.07.06)

Player

2022

2023

-

Luis Garcia

40.8

30.0

10.8

Adolis Garcia

37.3

28.0

9.3

Jack Suwinski

24.5

15.9

8.6

Bryan Reynolds

31.5

23.1

8.4

Luis Rengifo

34.9

26.8

8.1

Tim Anderson

41.6

34.0

7.6

Cedric Mullins

29.9

22.5

7.4

Nathaniel Lowe

29.2

21.9

7.3


Luis Garcia hit .275/.295/.408 with 7 home runs and 45 RBI over 93 games in 2022. By far this season, he is hitting .267/.302/.375 with 5 home runs and 37 RBI through 79 games. There’s not much change in batting average. However, his on-base percentage is now over .300. Most importantly, his K-rate drops from 22.3% to 11.7% Moreover, his walk rate was just 2.9% last season and in 2023, his BB% is over 5%. A possible reason to see these changes is that his chase rate decreases significantly from 40.8% to 30.0%.


At the same time, it’s worth taking a look at another Garcia. Adolis Garcia currently slashes .262/.332/.515 with 22 home runs and 71 RBI in 87 games. His OPS is now over .800. Furthermore, he now has 35 walks. Last season, he only drew 40 walks in 156 games. A major difference is that Garcia’s chase rate drops to below 30% this season and his walk rate increases from 6.1% to 9.2%. He’s selected to the 2023 MLB All-Star game.


In addition, let’s look at 2 players from the Pirates. Jack Suwinski’s chase rate goes down and his chase rate is now below 20%. Furthermore, a huge difference is that Suwinski, in the 2022 season, drew 41 walks across 106 games; by far this season, he has already played 77 games and has 45 walks. In the meantime, Bryan Reynolds’ chase rate was over 30% in 2022 and this season, the number drops to below 25%. These 2 players now each own an OPS of at least .800.


Finally, Luis Rengifo’s chase rate decreases from 34.9% to 26.8%. Rengifo drew 17 walks through 127 games last season and by far, he has 26 walks over 74 games this season. Meanwhile, let’s look at Tim Anderson, who was selected to the All-Star game in 2022. He batted .301/.339/.395 with 6 home runs and 25 RBI across 79 games. However, so far this season, he only hits .231/.268/.273. Furthermore, he hasn’t crushed any home runs yet. But, the good news is that Anderson had 14 walks in 2022 and now, he already drew 14 walks in 64 games. Anderson’s chase rate was over 40% last year and it declines to 34% this season.


Plate discipline is very important and hence, a batter should avoid hitting pitches that are out of the strike zone. For players such as Luis Garcia and Adolis Garcia, it’s certainly a great sign to see them swing at pitches out of the strike zone less frequently this season. The first half of the 2023 season is coming to an end soon. In the second half of the season, it will surely be worth watching whether they can stay disciplined at the plate. 

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