Last December, the Dodgers and Noah Syndergaard agreed to a one-year deal. In the 2023 season, Syndergaard already made 12 starts for the Dodgers, posting an ERA over 7 through 55.1 innings. Additionally, he owns a 1.45 WHIP and opponents hit .313 against him.
While seeing Syndergaard’s performance in the first half of the 2023 season, it doesn’t look like a player who used to be selected to the All-Star game. So, what really happened?
First of all, Syndergaard now has an ERA over 7. Did he finish a season with an ERA over 5? Well, the answer is “Yes.” In 2021, he was back from the Tommy John surgery. He only made 2 stars and tossed just 2 innings. Syndergaard faced 8 batters and gave up 2 runs. So, he finished the 2021 season with an ERA of 9.00. Additionally, he finished the 2019 season with a 4.28 ERA. These are the 2 seasons that he owned an ERA over 4. Thus, by far in Syndergaard’s career, it’s not common to see him finish a season with an ERA over 4.
In addition, let’s take a look at pitch velocity. Well, Noah Syndergaard is known as a hard throwing pitcher. He can surely throw a 4-seam fastball or a sinker, which touches 100 mph. However, as we can see, the average pitch velocity of his four-seam fastball drops to 92.6 mph this season. In the meantime, the average pitch velocity of his sinker declines to 92.3 mph. Last season, the average velocity of his 4-seamers was 94.1 mph and average velocity of his sinker was 93.5 mph. Furthermore, let’s look at the numbers in 2019. Back then, Syndergaard’s sinker or 4-seam fastball each reached 97+ mph, on average. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and when he comes back from the surgery, it seems that he’s no longer that hard-throwing pitcher.
Well, the fastball velocity drop is clear, however, does it truly impact his performance?
Opponents batted .263 against Noah Syndergaard in the 2022 season. And, it seems that opponent hit well against his four-seamer last year. This season, we can see that opponents hit well against his 4-seamer, sinker, cutter and curveball with a batting average of at least .300.
Finally, when we look at xwOBA, it shows that opponents truly make solid contact against Syndergaard’s 4-seamer and cutter. This season, he uses his cutter 18.7% of the time and throws his 4-seamer 13.1% of the time. In the meantime, he uses his sinker more than 30% of the time by far this season and xwOBA against his sinker is over .380. Moreover, he used his changeup 19.3% of the time last season and in 2023, it increases to nearly 25%. Well, xwOBA against his changeup drops, but it’s still over .310.
Therefore, looking at Noah Syndergaard’s performance in 2023, it’s very important that he's not the same “Thor”. His fastball velocity drops and he certainly has to change. His cutter usage increases to 18.7% this season, however, the outcome isn’t great. Furthermore, his changeup usage rises from 19.3% to 24.8% and the result isn’t great, either. The Dodgers placed Noah Syndergaard on the IL in early June. It’s unknown when he will be back on the mound, however, when he comes back, it will be worth watching whether he will make some adjustments.
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