After winning the Home Run Derby

Home Run Derby is always one of the most exciting events during All-Star week. We can see great hitters show their power and crush baseballs. This year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Home Run Derby. There’s no doubt that he’s one of the most dangerous hitters in the league and no one can ignore his power. However, after watching his performance in the Home Run Derby. I was thinking about a question.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the 2023 Home Run Derby. In 2007, his father, Vladimir Guerrero was the HR derby winner. Well, that made me wonder whether they each hit well in the second half of the season, when they became the HR derby winner.

 

Player Comparison (After winning the HR Derby)
Vladimir Guerrero (2nd Half, 2007)		Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2nd Half, ~2023.08.19)
65	G	32
85	H	28
13	HR	5
50	RBI	14
.323	BA	.233
.387	OBP	.336
.935	OPS	.736

 

Firstly, let’s start with Vladimir Guerrero. In 2007, he played 85 games before the All-Star break. He did hit well in the first half of the season, slashing .325/.416/.547 with 14 home runs and 75 RBI. Additionally, he had 1 stolen base. His OPS was over .900 before participating in the HR derby. In the second half of the 2007 season, he batted .323/.387/.548 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI through 65 games. Also, he got 1 steal. And, his OPS was over .900 as well. Hence, it doesn’t seem that there’s a huge difference in his hitting performance after winning the HR derby.

 

Now, let’s take a look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance in 2023. Before the All-Star break, he slashed .274/.344/.443 with 13 home runs and 58 RBI in 88 games. And, very interestingly, he had 4 stolen bases in the first half of the 2023 season. Back in 2021, he had 4 swipes during the regular season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was selected to the All-Star game, but his OPS was below .800 in the first half of the season. After crushing so many home runs in the HR derby and becoming the winner, does he hit well in the second half of the 2023 season? Well, the results might not satisfy the Blue Jays fans’ expectations. After the All-Star break, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now hits .233/.336/.400 with 5 home runs and 14 RBI thus far. His OPS is still below .800 in the second half of the season.

Lots of people like to discuss whether a player should participate in the home run derby. Each one can provide some ideas. When we look at the Guerreros in the home run derby, it doesn’t seem that there’s any huge impact on participating in the home run derby. Vladimir Guerrero Sr. finished the 2007 season with an OPS of .950 and finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting. Moreover, his OPS was over .900 before the All-Star break and he owned an OPS over .900 after the All-Star break. For Vladimir Guerrero Jr., his OPS was below .800 in the first half of the 2023 season. After the All-Star break, his OPS is now below .800 as well. The 2023 season might not be a great season for him, however, there’s something worth watching. His hard-hit rate is over 50% this year.