Not so long ago, a friend sent a message in a chat group. He indicated that a player would crush 70 home runs in 2024. Well, that message is a pretty interesting one. It’s not so easy to blast 70 home runs in a single season. By far, only 2 players used to smash 70 home runs in a single season. While reading that friend’s message, I began to think about a question.
Which player might be the next one to reach 70 home runs in a single season?
Firstly, let’s look back at those 2 players who crushed 70+ home runs in a single season. Barry Bonds belted 73 home runs in 2001. He played 153 games and had 476 at bats. Hence, his AB/HR was 6.52. Moreover, Bonds’ HR% was 11.0%. Furthermore, Mark McGwire blasted 70 home runs in 1998 and was the first player to reach 70 HRs in a single season. He played 155 games and had 509 at bats. Back then, his HR% was 10.3% and his AB/HR was 7.27. Meanwhile, Sammy Sosa was close to reaching 70 home runs in 1998. He smashed 66 home runs in 159 games. In 1998, Sosa’s HR% was 9.1% and his AB/HR was 9.74. Sosa had 643 at bats in 1998.
As we can see, to reach 70 home runs, of course, a player needs to have enough at bats. Moreover, his HR% should be at least 10%. Additionally, an AB/HR ratio which is lower than 9 is an ideal one.
Secondly, let’s take a look back at those home run leaders over the last 5 seasons. Aaron Judge blasted 62 home runs in 2022 and set the American League record. In that season, Judge’s HR% was 8.9% and his AB/HR was 9.19. A HR% of 8.9% was below Sosa’s HR% of 9.1% in 1998. However, Judge’s AB/HR was lower than Sosa’s AB/HR in 1998. Judge played 157 games in 2022 and had 570 at bats. Furthermore, in the shortened 2020 season, Luke Voit had 22 home runs over 56 games. Voit had 213 at bats in 2020 and his HR% was 9.4%, which was higher than Sosa’s 9.1% in 1998. Also, his AB/HR of 9.68 is lower than Sosa’s AB/HR in 1998.
Finally, Giancarlo Stanton had a fantastic season in 2017, slashing .281/.376/.631 with 59 home runs and 132 RBI over 159 games. In that season, Stanton’s HR% was 8.5% and his AB/HR was 10.12.
It is not easy to reach 70 home runs. Even though players tend to hit the ball in the air, there are not so many players who blast 60+ home runs in a single season recently. Aaron Judge’s 62 home runs were getting close to 70. Luke Voit blasted 22 home runs in 2020. Well, let’s just assume that his AB/HR is 9.68 and over a 162-game span, Voit might have at least 550 at bats. Even under this pace, he couldn’t reach 60 home runs. If we really have to choose a player to reach 70 home runs, Aaron Judge might be many people’s top choice. Nonetheless, to really see a player crush 70+ home runs in a single season again, we have to be patient.
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