4/03/2024

The higher, the better?


A couple of weeks ago, I was watching some highlights on the MLB website. In a highlight, a pitcher threw a fastball in the top of the strike zone and the hitter swung. Boom! The ball was gone. It was a home run. While watching that home run, I began to think about a question.

 

In the 2023 season, which batters did hit well when pitches were located in the top of the strike zone?

 

To understand a little bit more, I chose to check on the statcast website.

 

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Batting Average

(Upper Third, min pitches: 250, 2023)

Player

BA

Shohei Ohtani

.407

Seiya Suzuki

.382

Thairo Estrada

.367

Luis Arraez

.366

Bryson Stott

.366

Jose Ramirez

.365

Donovan Solano

.364

Masataka Yoshida

.349

Josh Bell

.346

 

Shohei Ohtani had a fantastic season in 2023, slashing .304/.412/.654 with 44 home runs and 95 RBI over 135 games. When facing pitches in the top of the strike zone, Ohtani had a batting average over .400 in 2023 and he crushed 12 home runs. Another Japanese batter also did a good job against pitches in the top of the strike zone. Seiya Suzuki batted .285/.357/.485 with 20 home runs and 74 RBI in his second season in the majors. In 2023, Suzuki’s batting average was over .380 when facing pitches in the top of the strike zone. Suzuki had 20 homers in 2023 and 10 of those home runs came from the pitches in the top of the strike zone.

 

Moreover, Thairo Estrada’s batting average was .271 in 2023, however, he did hit well against pitches in the top of the strike zone with a .367 batting average. Furthermore, Luis Arraez led the majors with a .354 BA. Against pitches in the top of the strike zone, Arraez had a batting average over .360. At the same time, Bryson Stott had a .366 BA against pitches in the top of the strike zone. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez and Donovan Solano each had a batting average over .360 against pitches in the top of the strike zone in 2023.

 

Well, those batters did have a high batting average against pitches in the top of the strike zone. However, do they actually hit baseballs hard?

 

Expected Weighted On-base Average

(Upper Third, min pitches: 250, 2023)

Player

xwOBA

Shohei Ohtani

.537

Marcell Ozuna

.520

Juan Soto

.486

Spencer Torkelson

.454

Ronald Acuna Jr.

.432

Josh Bell

.429

Seiya Suzuki

.427

Bryan Reynolds

.418

Bobby Witt Jr.

.410

Max Muncy

.410

Jose Ramirez

.403

Bo Bichette

.400

Jake Burger

.400

Alec Bohm

.386

 

Shohei Ohtani’s batting average was over .400 against pitches in the top of the strike zone and he did hit baseballs hard. Ohtani’s xwOBA was over .500 against pitches in the top of the strike zone. Last season, Marcell Ozuna blasted 40 home runs and 12 of those home runs were against pitches in the top of the strike zone. When pitches are located in the top of the strike zone, Ozuna can make solid contact with an xwOBA over .500. Moreover, Juan Soto crushed 15 homers when pitches were in the top of the strike zone. Soto had a .486 xwOBA against those pitches in the top of the strike zone, he certainly can make solid contact. Furthermore, Spencer Torkelson, who was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, blasted 31 home runs last year and 10 of those home runs were coming from the top of the strike zone. When facing pitches in the top of the strike zone, Torkelson had a .454 xwOBA and 9 other players owned an xwOBA of .400 or higher.


The 2024 season just began. For pitchers, it might not be ideal to locate pitches in the top of the strike zone when facing those hitters. Meanwhile, it will be worthwhile to see if those batters can still make solid contact while facing pitches in the top of the strike zone.

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