9/22/2024

Throwing hard against them?


A couple of weeks ago, I watched a baseball game on TV. In that game, a pitcher threw a lot of pitches that went 95 mph or higher. In particular, against a batter, he threw several pitches that were 95+ mph.

 

After watching the game, I was just thinking about if pitchers frequently throw pitches that are 95 mph or higher against that batter. Moreover, over the last several seasons, which batters had seen a lot of pitches that reached 95 mph or higher?

 

To understand a little bit more, I chose to check on the statcast website.

 

Pitch %

(Velocity>=95 mph, min pitches: 1000, 2020~2023)

Player

Pitch%

Mike Trout

21.5%

Bo Bichette

21.0%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

19.8%

Nathaniel Lowe

19.4%

Brandon Belt

19.4%

Manny Machado

19.4%

Ronald Acuna Jr.

19.2%

Fernando Tatis Jr.

18.8%

 

From 2020 to 2023, pitchers threw pitches that reached 95 mph or higher against Mike Trout 21.5% of the time. Nonetheless, throwing hard against Trout might not be the best idea. Against those 95+ mph pitches, Trout’s batting average was over .260 and his xwOBA was over .390.

 

Meanwhile, Bo Bichette saw more than 1600 pitches that were 95 mph or higher over the last 4 seasons. But it seems that Bichette could handle that. From 2020 to 2023, he had a batting average of .290 against pitches with a velocity of 95 mph or higher.

 

In addition, pitchers threw pitches that were 95+ mph against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. nearly 20% of the time over the last 4 seasons. Guerrero Jr. isn’t afraid of those pitches. He had a batting average over .290 against those pitches with a velocity of 95 mph or higher and his xwOBA was over .380.

 

In the meantime, 3 players each saw pitches with a velocity of 95+ mph 19.4% of the time from 2020 to 2023. However, the results of facing those pitches were quite different. Manny Machado had a batting average of .275 against those 95+ mph and his xwOBA was over .360. Nevertheless, against pitches that reached 95 mph or higher, Nathaniel Lowe’s batting average was .228 and Brandon Belt’s batting average was .211. And they each had an xwOBA below .300.

 

Finally, from 2020 to 2023, Ronald Acuna Jr. faced 95+ pitches more than 19% of the time as well. Acuna Jr.’s performance against those pitches wasn’t bad. His batting average was over .260 and his xwOBA was over .390.

 

So, after checking the stats on the statcast website, Mike Trout and Bo Bichette frequently faced pitches that reached 95 mph or higher with seeing 95+ mph pitches more than 20% of the time. Nonetheless, throwing hard against them might not always be the best idea. Taking a closer look, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Trout each owned similar stats. They each had a batting average over .290 and owned an xwOBA over .390 when facing pitches with a velocity of 95 mph or higher. Nevertheless, injuries have become serious problems for those 2 players and they each have missed significant playing time. Nonetheless, for Nathaniel Lowe, it might be worth paying attention to his performance against pitches that reach 95 mph or higher. There’s room for him to improve for sure. Well, Brandon Belt hasn’t played any games in 2024 and perhaps, his performance against 95+ mph pitches is a concern for MLB teams.

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