The 2022 Hall of Fame ballot was revealed and the results will be announced in January. While seeing some familiar names on the ballot, I was just thinking how good a player has to be in his career to be voted into Cooperstown. To know a little more, I went to check on the great baseball reference website. Firstly, I found that 9-time Negro League All-Star Leon Day’s career WAR was 17.8 and he was inducted to the Hall of Fame in 1995. Additionally, Trevor Hoffman, who was inducted to the Hall Fame in 2018, recorded more than 600 saves and his career WAR was 28. However, these cases are definitely unusual. Looking at Wins Above Replacement for pitchers, the average WAR for pitchers of these Hall of Famers is 66. Furthermore, more than 50 pitchers had a Pitcher WAR of at least 50. Secondly, Derek Jeter and Larry Walker were inducted to the Hall of Fame in 2020 and they each had a WAR of at least 70. While checking on the baseball reference website, average WAR for position players who later became Hall of Famers is 67. In addition, more than 120 position players had a 50+ WAR. Well, a bWAR of 50 seems to be a reasonable indicator to tell us whether a player shall be a Hall of Famer. So, how many active players already have an over 50 bWAR now?
Albert Pujols, who will turn 42 in January, leads in WAR among active players. He has more than 3000 hits and already crushed more than 600 home runs so far in his career. There’s no doubt that he will be a Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, Mike Trout’s WAR is 76.1 now and he’s now only 30 years old. We are just witnessing Trout is on the way to be the best player in baseball. At the same, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander each have a 70+ WAR. Robinson Cano’s WAR is nearly 70, but he was suspended because of the PED violation. His candidacy is ruined. Furthermore, 6 other players’ WAR already reached 50 as well.
In addition, some players are getting close to reaching 50 WAR. Chris Sale is surely one of the most dominant pitchers if he stays healthy. Jacob deGrom was definitely dominant this season before being placed on the IL. If these two pitchers can stay healthy and pitch for a few more years, we shall see them each have an over 50 WAR. Moreover, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado just turned 29 and they shall not have too many problems to reach 50 career WAR. Meanwhile, some other players such as Freddie Freeman and Nolan Arenado are under 33 and they might have enough time to reach 50 career WAR.
It’s definitely not easy to be elected to the Hall of Fame. It requires long-term success in a player’s career. There’s no doubt that players such as Albert Pujols and Mike Trout will be Hall of Famers. Moreover, those players with an over 50 WAR probably will make a speech in Cooperstown. Furthermore, some of those players, who already have an over 40 WAR, might be inducted.
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