12/27/2021

What if?


The 2021 season is over and 2021 is almost coming to an end. MLB’s lockout is still going on and it’s still unclear to know when it will come to an end. However, we can still review the 2021 season.


Looking back at the 2021 season, the Braves defeated the Dodgers in the NLCS and the Dodgers can’t be the first team to win back-to-back World Series Champions in this century.


In the postseason, the Dodgers didn’t have 3-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw in the rotation. Additionally, two-time All-Star Max Muncy suffered an elbow injury during the last game of the regular season. Those two players are definitely important for the Dodgers. Moreover, a key thing drew my attention. Austin Barnes, who was behind the plate for the final out of the 2020 World Series, did not catch in the 2021 postseason. Will Smith was the catcher of all 12 games for the Dodgers this postseason. That made me wonder whether it’s a good idea to let Austin Barnes catch for a few games in the postseason.


To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the great baseball reference website and statcast website.


Firstly, let’s look at the Dodgers’ pitching performance when these two players were catching.


Stats (By Catcher, 2021)

Austin Barnes

 

Will Smith

442.1

IP

1004.2

3.73

SO/W

3.11

.204

BA

.209

.269

OBP

.285

.593

OPS

.637


During the regular season, Will Smith is the primary catcher for the Dodgers. When we look at the Dodgers' pitching performance when Smith was catching, it’s actually pretty good. Opponents batted only .209 when Will Smith was catching. Meanwhile, when Austin Barnes was catching, it’s even better. When Austin Barnes was catching, opponents only hit .204. Moreover, opponents only had a .593 OPS. Additionally, the Dodger pitchers had a 3.73 K/BB rate when Barnes was behind the plate during the regular season. The Dodgers pitching staff did a great job in the 2021 season with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Opponents only batted .207 against the Dodgers pitchers. But, looking at the numbers, it seems that those pitchers were pitching slightly better when Barnes was catching.


Additionally, let’s look at their framing skills.


Stats (By Catcher, 2021)

Austin Barnes

 

Will Smith

1

Runs from

Extra Strikes

2

49.8%

Strike Rate

49%


Strike rate indicated percentage of non-swings on the edges of the zone converted into called strikes, Austin Barnes seems to do a better job, but the difference between Barnes and Smith this season is limited. Moreover, Runs from Extra Strikes converts strikes to runs saved on a .125 run/strike basis. It seems that Will Smith did a better job. Nonetheless, again, the difference is limited.


Finally, let’s go back to the 2020 postseason.


Records (By Catcher, 2020 Postseason)

Austin Barnes

 

Will Smith

7

W

7

1

L

5


In the 2020 postseason, when Austin Barnes was behind the plate, the Dodgers only lost once. It was the NLCS Game 4, Clayton Kershaw gave up 4 runs in 5 innings. Barnes was behind the plate for 6 innings and Will Smith came out of the bench. Moreover, it’s worth mentioning, in the 2020 World Series, Austin Barnes was behind the plate in Game 1, Game 3, Game 5 and Game 6. The Dodgers won these four games and lifted the Commissioner’s trophy. At the same time, Will Smith was the catcher in Game 2 and Game 4, and, unfortunately, the Dodgers took losses.


Well, in 2021, Austin Barnes only hit .215/.299/.345 with 6 home runs and 23 RBI. Meanwhile, Will Smith slashed .258/.365/.495 with 25 home runs and 76 RBI. Will Smith is definitely a great hitting catcher and it’s not a surprise to see the Dodgers let him become the primary catcher. However, I am just wondering. Perhaps, the Dodgers benefited from the universal DH rule because Will Smith could be the DH when Austin Barnes was catching in the playoffs.

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