Last month, I watched a baseball game on TV. On the mound, it was a pitcher who pitched very well in April, however, in that game, he was hit hard. It seems that he didn’t have any clues. But, that made me think about a question. Did MLB batters gradually heat up in May?
To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the great baseball reference website.
The 2022 season began on April 7 and in the first month, MLB batters hit .232/.307/.369. In April, there were 574 home runs. However, things gradually changed in May. In the second month of the regular season, MLB batters batted .246/.313/.398. Moreover, there were 904 home runs in May. Additionally, the league xwOBA was .328 in April and in May, xwOBA went up to .330. Hence, it seems that MLB batters did hit a little bit better in May.
And, I was just wondering whether the spring training delay was the main reason. So, I looked back at the stats in 2021.
Last year, the regular season began on April 1. In the first month of the regular season, MLB batters hit .232/.309/.390. Moreover, there were 875 home runs last April. In May 2021, MLB batters slashed .239/.315/.397 and there were 936 HRs. Interestingly, over these two seasons, the league OPS was under .700 in April. Last May, the league OPS was .712 and this year, the league OPS was .711 in May, which is very close. But, it’s worth mentioning that the league xwOBA was .317 last April and the number was .316 last May.
Over the last two years, MLB OPS didn’t reach .700 in the first month of the regular season, but MLB batters did hit better in May with an OPS over .700 each year. Indeed, MLB batters really need some time to heat up during the regular season. And, normally, early in the season, pitchers are ahead of hitters. Additionally, in some parts of the U.S., it’s still cold and wet. So, it should be very common to see most batters hit better in May than they do in April.
However, in baseball, everything could happen.
The 2009 regular season began on April 5 and MLB batters seemed to be ready for the season. In April 2009, the league batting average was .263 and there were 679 home runs. Moreover, the league OPS was .763 in April, which just showed that MLB batters were hitting well. In May 2009, there were 857 home runs, but the league OPS declined to .751.
Finally, looking back at the 2009 season, the league batting average of .262 was quite unbelievable. Why? In 2020, the league batting average was .245 and last season, the league batting average was .244.
Well, the league batting average was .262 in 2009 and since then, the league batting average hasn’t reached .260 in a single season. Batting average might not be as important as it was because it’s not very useful to evaluate a hitter’s ability. Nonetheless, this April, the league batting average of .232 and the league OPS of .676 can somehow let us know that many hitters were in slow starts.
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