I’ve been watching several postseason games on TV. In a game, I saw a player who hit a baseball hard, it seemed that it was going to be a hit. However, the outfielder caught it. Well, it was a hard-hit ball, but the outcome wasn’t as the batter expected. After watching the game, I was just wondering which batters did have a lot of hard-hit flyouts during the regular season.
To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.
Freddie Freeman signed a 6-year deal with the Dodgers in March. In his first season with the Dodgers, Freeman hit .325/.407/.511 with 21 home runs and 100 RBI. Additionally, Freeman led the majors with 199 hits. During the regular season, Freeman’s hard-hit rate was 47.8% and his fly-ball rate was 28.4%. Moreover, there were 54 times that Freeman’s hard-hit fly balls were caught and xwOBA of those 54 flyouts was .463.
Freeman’s first season with the Dodgers was pretty good. However, Max Muncy didn’t have a great 2022 season. During the regular season, Muncy only batted .196/.329/.384. But, he crushed 21 home runs, which are the same as Freeman had. Muncy’s hard-hit rate was 45.6% in 2022 and his fly-ball percentage was 39.5%, which is his career-high. This season, there were 52 times that Muncy’s hard-hit fly balls became outs.
In addition, Salvador Perez had a great 2021 season with 48 home runs. Nonetheless, in 2022, he didn’t blast as many home runs as he did last season. Perez slashed .254/.292/.465 this season. His hard-hit rate dropped from 56.2% to 49%. Well, a 49% hard-hit rate is top 10% of the league, so the number wasn’t that bad. But, unfortunately, there were 50 times that Perez’s hard-hit fly balls were outs. Furthermore, Willy Adames smashed a career-high 31 home runs and collected 98 RBI in 2022. During the regular season, Adames’ hard-hit rate was 43.6% and his fly-ball percentage was 33.4%. And, there were 49 times that Adames’ hard-hit fly balls were caught.
Finally, Kyle Tucker crushed 30 home runs again in 2022. He slashed .294/.359/.557 with 30 home runs and 92 RBI in 2021 and this season, he was hitting .257/.330/.478 with 30 home runs and 107 RBI. Tucker’s hard-hit rate was 42.4% during the regular season and his fly-ball rate was 37.7%, which is the highest so far in his career. There were 47 times that Tucker’s hard-hit fly balls became outs in 2022. Nevertheless, xwOBA of these 47 hard-hit flyouts was over .500. Not every hard-hit ball will become a hit. There are other factors that we can’t ignore. For example, if the launch angle is too high, hard-hit balls might become just fly balls that outfielders can handle. However, looking at the chart, there are 4 players from the Dodgers. Well, the Dodgers blasted 212 home runs in 2022 and nearly 48% of those home runs came from these 4 players. It’s not a surprise to see them hit fly balls. But, I’m just wondering a thing. If MLB didn’t change baseballs, would some of those hard-hit fly balls become home runs?
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