2/08/2023

More balls in play?


In 2023, there will be several rule changes. A key change is to limit defensive shifts and with this rule change, balls in play are expected to increase. While seeing these changes, I was wondering about the changes in balls in play in MLB history.


To understand a little bit, I went to check on the great baseball reference website.



In 1980, there were 29.02 balls in play per game. The next year, the number dropped to 28.79. From 1981 to 1985, there were 28+ balls in play per game each season. Nonetheless, in 1986, the number of balls in play dropped to 27.52, on average. From 1986 to 1996, there were 27+ balls in play per game. Nevertheless, in 1997, there were fewer than 27 balls in play per game. But, from 1998 to 2000, the number of balls in play bounced back to 27+ per game.
  
In 2001 and 2002, the number of balls in play per game was below 27. Nonetheless, the number went up to 27.17 the next year. From 2003 to 2007, the number of balls in play stayed quite consistent. However, in 2008, the number of balls in play per game declined to 26.84. And, it hasn’t gone back since then. From 2008 to 2011, there were 26+ balls in play per game. In 2012, there number of balls in play dropped to below 26 and the number stayed over 25 but below 26 from 2012 to 2016. But, the number fell again in 2017. In that season, the number of balls in play was 24.80. The next 2 seasons, the number of balls in play remained below 25. In 2020 and 2021, it was quite rare to see balls in play. In the shortened 2020 season, there were only 23.13 balls in play per game. In 2021, the number was 23.67. Last season, the number of balls in play slightly went up to 24.41. As we can see, there are actually fewer balls in play in today’s baseball games. In particular, since 2017, there have been fewer than 25 balls in play per game each season. In 2020 and 2021, there were fewer than 24 balls in play per game. The number went up a little bit last season. With the rule changes in 2023, it will be really interesting to see the number of balls in play will increase in the new season. Meanwhile, I’m also thinking about one thing. In 2022, the league batting average was .243 and back in 1980, the league batting average was .265. There's been a huge drop in league batting average over the last 40+ years. In particular, from 2020 to 2022, batting average in the majors remained below .250. With the new rules, I’m also wondering whether the league batting average will increase in the new season. Additionally, batting average seems to be less important, and last season, only 11 players (qualified) finished the season with a batting average of .300 or higher. Perhaps, we will see more players finish the 2023 season with a batting average or .300 or higher? 

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