Should be more aggressive?

A couple of weeks ago, I was listening to a podcast show. In the show, the host demonstrated that a manager told a former MVP to be more aggressive. In particular, that player should be more aggressive on swinging at the first pitch. After listening to the show, I’m thinking about some players who frequently swing at the first pitch.

Moreover, this season, which players actually become more aggressive on swinging at the first pitch? To understand a little bit more, I went to check on the statcast website.

First Pitch Swing % (Min PA: Qualified, ~2023.05.13)
Player	% (2022)	% (2023)	Changes (+)
Jorge Polanco	19.1%	32.2%	13.1
Dylan Carlson	21.8%	34.6%	12.8
Garrett Cooper	28.8%	40.8%	12
Taylor Ward	26.2%	38.1%	11.9
Isaac Paredes	15.5%	25.9%	10.4
Gio Urshela	35.8%	44.6%	8.8

Jorge Polanco started the 2023 season on the IL. After coming back from the IL, it seems that he becomes more aggressive on swinging at the first pitch. Last season, he only swung at the first pitch 19.1% of the time. By far this season, he swings at the first pitch more than 30% of the time and he has a batting average of .308 while swinging at the first pitch. From 2015 to 2022, he never swung at the first pitch more than 30% of the time in a single season.

At the same time, Dylan Carlson swings at the first pitch more than 30% of the time as well. But, his batting average is below .250 when he swings at the first pitch. Carlson made it into the big leagues in 2020 and back then, he only swung at the first pitch 10.9% of the time. In 2021 and 2022, he swung at the first pitch less than 25% of the time.

In addition, Garrett Cooper made it into the big leagues in 2017. Last season, he was selected to the All-Star game for the first time in his career. Cooper slashed .261/.337/.415 with 9 home runs and 50 RBI across 119 games in 2022. In the 2022 season, Cooper swung at the first pitch 28.8% of the time and his batting average was over .300. This year, Cooper has become more aggressive. By far this season, he chooses to swing at the first pitch more than 40% of the time. Nonetheless, to date, Cooper has only 1 hit while swinging at the first pitch. Previously, Cooper never finished a season with a 1st pitch swing percentage over 40%.

Moreover, Taylor Ward had a breakout season in 2022. He hit .281/.360/.473 with 23 home runs and 65 RBI over 135 games. Ward swung at the first pitch 26.2% of the time last season and the result was great. His batting average was over .350 while swinging at the first pitch. So far this season, he swings at the first pitch more than 38% of the time and his batting average is over .350.

Finally, Isaac Paredes played for the Tigers from 2020 to 2021 and he was traded to the Rays last April. Last season, he played 111 games for the Rays, which is the first time that he played 100+ games in a single season. Paredes slashed .205/.304/.435 with 20 home runs and 45 RBI. In 2022, he only swung at the first pitch 15.5% of the time and collected 5 hits while swinging at the first pitch. By far this season, Paredes swings at the first pitch 25.9% of the time and he already collected 4 hits when he chose to swing at the first pitch. Looking at the chart, by far this season, 5 players each swing at the first pitch more than 10% of the time than they did last year. However, the outcomes vary. Taylor Ward did well when he chose to swing at the first pitch last season and this season, it seems that swinging at the first pitch is surely a good decision. Meanwhile, Isaac Paredes now has a batting average of .500 when he swings at the first pitch. Nonetheless, Garrett Cooper swings at the first pitch more than 40% of the time this season, and he might be just too aggressive.