An ERA over 6?

Just a few weeks ago, I was browsing the MLB website and checking the starting pitchers. Suddenly, I found that, on that day, two pitchers, who were scheduled to start, had an ERA over 6. Well, seeing a pitcher with an ERA over 6 is certainly not a great thing for a team’s manager. After seeing 2 starting pitchers with an ERA over 6 to start on the same day, I began to think about a question.

 

How often do we see a pitcher finish a season with an ERA over 6? To understand a little bit more, I checked the stats on the MLB website.

 

From 2004 to 2023, actually, there are several times that we can see a pitcher own an ERA over 6 in a single season.

In 2004, no qualified pitchers finished the season with an ERA of 6 or higher. But, in 2005, Jose Lima, who tossed 168.2 innings for the Royals, owned a 6.99 ERA. Moreover, Eric Milton made 34 starts for the Reds and posted a 6.47 ERA through 186.1 innings.

 

In 2006, Joel Pineiro threw 165.2 innings for the Mariners and had a 6.36 ERA. At the same time, Jason Marquis made 33 starts for the Cardinals, posting a 6.02 ERA over 194.1 innings. The next season, no qualified pitchers finished the season with an ERA over 6.

 

However, in 2008, 3 pitchers who tossed at least 165 innings finished the season with an ERA over 6. Nate Robertson owned a 6.35 ERA over 168.2 innings. Meanwhile, Livan Hernandez made 31 starts, posting a 6.05 ERA through 180 innings. Brandon Backe made 31 starts in 2008 as well. He had a 6.05 ERA across 166.2 innings.

 

From 2009 to 2017, no qualified pitchers finished a season with an ERA over 6. Nevertheless, in 2018, Lucas Giolito made 32 starts for the White Sox. He tossed 173.1 innings and finished the season with a 6.13 ERA. In 2019, no qualified pitchers finished the season with an ERA over 6. But, in 2020, it was a shortened season, Matthew Boyd had a 6.71 ERA over 60.1 innings.

 

Finally, over the last 2 seasons, no pitchers finished a season with an ERA over 6. But, this season, Jordan Lyles made 31 starts for the Royals. He ate 177.2 innings and owned a 6.28 ERA.

 

It’s actually quite rare to see a team let a pitcher, who has an ERA over 6, eat so many innings. But, it happened a few times over these 20 seasons. After finishing a season with an ERA over 6, did these pitchers pitch well in the next season? Well, the most successful case is probably Lucas Giolito. He had an ERA over 6 in 2018. Nonetheless, in 2019, he made 29 starts for the White Sox, posting a 3.41 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 176.2 innings. And, he was selected to the All-Star game in 2019. But, for most of these pitchers who finished the season with an ERA over 6, the struggle continued. Jordan Lyles signed a 2-year deal with the Royals in December 2022. In his first season with the Royals, he took 17 losses and had an ERA over 6. In the second season, what will the Royals do? Will he still toss so many innings?