10/04/2023

Miller and Buehler


It’s October. It’s the most exciting month for baseball fans. Of course, the Dodgers fans are going to watch October baseball. The Dodgers have clinched a spot in the postseason for 11 consecutive years. And, very soon, Bobby Miller will take the mound to make his postseason debut.

 

Bobby Miller made his MLB debut in May and in 2023, he made 22 starts for the Dodgers, posting a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 124.1 innings. Watching Miller pitch is surely entertaining and that also makes me think about another pitcher.

 

Walker Buehler had been an extremely important pitcher for the Dodgers over the last few seasons, however, he underwent Tommy John surgery last year and he’s not returning on the mound this year. While watching Miller pitching, I was just thinking if he had a better start in his career than Walker Buehler did.

 

Player Comparison (First season with 20+ starts)

Bobby Miller
(2023)

 

Walker Buehler
(2018)

24

Age

23

22

G

24

124.1

IP

137.1

119

SO

151

1.10

WHIP

0.96

.226

BAA

.193

 

Firstly, let’s start with Walker Buehler. The Dodgers selected Walker Buehler in the first round of the 2015 draft. Buehler made his MLB debut in 2017 and he owned an ERA over 7 through 9.1 innings. In 2018, he became an important one of the Dodgers rotation. In total, Buehler made 23 starts and 1 relief appearance in 2018, posting a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 137.1 innings in 2018. Back then, only Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood tossed more innings than Walker Buehler did.

 

In 2020, the Dodgers selected Bobby Miller in the first round of the MLB draft. On May 23, 2023, Miller made his MLB debut and he tossed 5 innings against the Braves, allowing just 1 run. This season, Miller made 20+ starts and owned an ERA below 4. Opponents didn’t hit well against him. Moreover, he threw more than 120 innings. Among the Dodgers pitching staff, only Clayton Kershaw threw more innings than Miller did this year.

 

Now, let’s take a look at advanced stats.

 

Player Comparison (First season with 20+ starts)

Bobby Miller
(2023)

 

Walker Buehler
(2018)

2.4%

HR%

2.2%

23.6%

SO%

27.9%

6.3%

BB%

6.8%

37.6%

Hard-hit %

32.0%

.288

xwOBA

.260

 

In 2018, Walker Buehler gave up 12 home runs over 137.1 innings. This season, Bobby Miller allowed 12 home runs through 124.1 innings. These 2 pitchers don’t easily give up a home run and as we can see, they each had a HR% below 3%.

 

Moreover, in 2018, Buehler punched out 151 batters and gave up 37 walks. This year, Miller threw 119 strikeouts and issued 32 free passes. Hence, they each had a strikeout rate over 20% and a walk rate below 7%.

 

Finally, xwOBA against Buehler was .260 in 2018 and this season, xwOBA against Miller was .288 during the regular season. It’s not so easy to make solid contact against these 2 pitchers.


Looking at these 2 pitchers’ first seasons with 100+ innings, it seems that they didn’t let the Dodgers down. They did pitch well, but we might say Buehler’s stats look even better. Buehler had become an important part for the Dodgers during the regular season in 2018 and in the 2018 postseason, he owned a 3.80 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP over 23.2 innings. And, over the last few seasons, Walker Buehler had been one of the most reliable starters for the Dodgers. Nonetheless, unfortunately, we won’t see him return this year. In a few days, Bobby Miller will make his postseason debut, and let’s see whether he can pitch well in the postseason.

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