How many innings will he throw?

Shohei Ohtani, without a doubt, is a superstar in baseball. Fans around the world all watch his performance. After undergoing his second major elbow surgery in 2023 and going through the rehab process, Ohtani returned to the mound in mid-June.

 

So far this season, Ohtani already made 5 starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP across 9 innings. At this moment, he made it through 2 innings twice. And he just tossed 3 innings a few days ago. Hence, many baseball fans might have a question. How many innings will Shohei Ohtani throw in the 2025 season?

 

To answer this question, let’s start with the very beginning. Ohtani made his debut in 2018. Back in his rookie season, he made 10 starts, posting a 3.31 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 51.2 innings. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and didn’t pitch in 2019. In 2020, he returned to the mound. But things didn’t go well. Ohtani only tossed 1.2 innings in 2020.

 

Now, let’s look at his stats from 2021 to 2023. Ohtani made 23 starts in 2021, posting a 3.18 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 130.1 innings. In 2022, Ohtani made 28 starts. He threw 166 innings, which is the highest in a single season thus far in his career. In 2022, he owned a 2.33 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 166 innings. In 2023, Ohtani made 23 starts and threw 132 innings, posting a 3.14 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

 

As commonly known, pitchers don’t exceed their pre-surgery innings pitched after returning from Tommy John surgery. In 2023, Ohtani tossed 132 innings and it’s certain that the Dodgers won’t let him throw so many innings.

 

So, let’s look at what Ohtani has done this season. He tossed 1 inning twice and there are 2 times that he threw 2 innings. And he went 3 innings in the last start. Basically, the Dodgers let him pitch once per week. As the Dodgers are cautiously monitoring his situation, Ohtani is probably going to pitch 3 innings next time. If things go well, the Dodgers will evaluate his situation to determine the next step.

 

After the All-Star break, Ohtani might pitch twice in the rest of July. In August and September, let’s assume that he will make a start each week. Hence, he will probably make 8 starts in August and September. Let’s assume that he throws 4 innings, on average, the number will be 40 innings after the All-Star break. Therefore, in the 2025 season, Ohtani might reach 40+ innings. Nonetheless, will he reach 50 innings? It’s not easy to tell.

Well, we might not see Ohtani pitch many innings in 2025. However, after undergoing the second elbow surgery, being more cautious is surely necessary. At this moment, Shohei Ohtani hasn't reached 5 innings in a game yet and the last time that Ohtani tossed at least 5 innings in a game was in August 2023. Hence, firstly, we can carefully watch when Ohtani will reach 5 innings for the first time since August 2023. Additionally, a key thing worth watching is whether Ohtani will reach 51.2 innings, which he did in his rookie season. Also, this might be quite interesting. Shohei Ohtani has never pitched in the postseason. Will he throw in the 2025 postseason?