To bunt, or not?

Bunting is a technique in baseball. Austin Barnes’ bunt in Game 3 of the 2020 World Series was a successful one and helped the Dodgers score. However, more and more baseballs are hit into the air. There are fewer balls in play. Is bunting going to a technique that will be used less frequently in the future? To get more data, I went to check the baseball reference website. Here’s what I got.

The bunt’s invention dates to the early 1870 and we can find the records from 1894. Meanwhile, baseball rules during the early games were not exactly the same as the modern games. In early baseball history, sacrifice flies used to be included in the sacrifice hits. Since 1940, sacrifice hits are awarded only on bunts that advance a runner and result in an out, or would have resulted in an out but for an error or unsuccessful fielder's choice. So, let’s focus on the data from 1940. In 1940, there were 1266 sacrifice hits. A few years later, sacrifice hits went up to 1683 times in 1943 and dropped to 1406 times in 1947. Since 1947, it had been a long time that there were less than 1500 sacrifice bunts in a single season. However, the number went up in 1968 and there were 1507 sacrifice hits in that year. In 1969, there were 24 teams in the league and sacrifice bunts increased to more than 1600 times. Between 1968 and 2011, we can see that sacrifice hits mostly remained between 1500 times and 2000 times in a single season. Since 2011, bunting doesn’t seem to be a good idea, sacrifice bunts dropped year by year. In a shortened 2020 season, there were only 126 sacrifice bunts.

It might not be truly correct to only see the total numbers yearly. So, let’s look at sacrifice bunts per game. In 1940, on average, we see that the league had 0.51 bunts per game. Between 1942 and 1946, the number remained at least 0.60. From 1947 to 1956, in these 10 years, the number remained at least 0.50, but in 1955, only 0.48 bunts per game. Since 1957, bunts per game have been under 0.50. Recently, MLB teams seem to be less reluctant to ask a batter to bunt. Last season, a shortened one, only 0.07 bunts per game. Well, there was the universal DH rule in 2020 and pitchers didn’t have to hit. That’s why we didn’t see many bunts last year. This season, pitchers are going to hit and we might see more bunts this season. Among active players, Clayton Kershaw leads in sacrifice hits and he bunted successfully 108 times. Elvis Andrus has 100 sacrifice hits so far. In the top 5, there are two other pitchers, Johnny Cueto and Julio Teheran. Cueto has 85 sacrifice bunts and Teheran has 67. Veteran Brett Gardner has 64 sacrifice bunts. Bunting doesn’t seem to be a good idea for MLB teams because it could reduce expected runs. However, since pitchers will have to hit in 2021, we shall see them bunt in the National League ballparks.

Leaders in sacrifice hits (Active Players)
Player	SH (SAC)
Clayton Kershaw	108
Elvis Andrus	100
Johnny Cueto	85
Julio Teheran	67
Brett Gardner	64